Saturday, October 24, 2015

Syria - how to destroy a combine harvester

Nice vide from the liveleak showing Syrian rebels blowing up a combine harvester with TOW.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Syria, systematic attacks from the rebells/ISIS against the infrastructure of the country -- planned migrant crisis

By watching the news around the net I see many videos about rebells  attacking Sysrian army tanks protecting electrical substations and power plants .
There was a news about the US forces bombed a substation few weeks ago.
Two F16 aircrafts belonging to the so-called US-led coalition violated the Syrian airspace on Saturday, targeting the infrastructure and destroying two power plants in al-Rudwaniya area to the east of Aleppo city, a military source said.
Pillons around the tank.
Another tank , there is a pylon  in the background, and electrical cables in the air , showing another hi volt line.Seems like the tanks is close to a high voltage substation.
Another video,in this case the rebells or ISIS attack one tank in the front of a electrical substation.

I don't know what is the motivation of the rebels/USA, but the Syrian military putting efforts to protect the country infrstructure.


Friday, May 8, 2015

Future of the nuclear power - Thorium , reprocessing and non-proliferation

Many guy around the net/written paper arguing about the future and benefit of the Thorium fuel cycle,  new reactor designs and so on.

Anyone who considering the Thorium as the near future of the nuclear power doesn't know the political motivation of the  governments around the world.

See Iran : they playing within the limits of the Nuclear non-proliferation rules ,but say no one likes them too much at the moment.

All that they try to do is to develop a full, fuel cycle with enrichment .

One important point: Iran doesn't has reprocessing capability, all noise / moaning from the US coming due to low enrichment capacity.

So see the Thorium fuel cycle in this light.

Why Thorium?

The main benefit of the Thorium is not connected to the abundance of it.
If we compare the thorium to the uranium (238) then the most important is from the u238 if one neutron captured by it then it will transmuted to Pu239.

If  Thorium 232  capture a neutron then if will transmuted to Uranium 233.

Both of them fissile, so if they get a neutron then there is high chance to split the nucleus, and generate new neutrons to sustain the reaction, but the U233 has HIGHER chance than the Pu239.

If the nucleus is not split , then it will became either u234 or Pu240, neither of them fissile .

But the chance higher for the Pu.

So essentially the breeding ratio of the reaction better, for each neutron you get more neutron with U233 than with Pu239.

It means that you can modify the current light water reactors (used everywhere around the world) to closed Thorium cycle.

BUT we have Iran.

Closed cycle means reprocessing capability.

That is only one step away from the bomb material.

Other interesting, promising technology:

Molten salt reactor.

Light, non pressurised ,cheap, and has high efficiency.

It is the only reactor type, where the fuel is accessible during the cycle for reprocessing, so it possible to remove all Caesium ,Strontium so on from it that can contaminate the environment in the event of accident.

But here is the non-proliferation risk in one world: continuous reprocessing.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Return Of Investment in relationship with the size of the saving, and eigenstates/chaotic attractors Links:

The consumption share from the GDP will fall if the Return On Investment for small savers will be significantly lower than for big savers

Past value of the difference between small saver and big saver ROI can be calculated easily.

Best example the consumption share from the GDP decreased dramatically between 2000-2015 in China.
For a long-time Mr Pettis arguing about that the lower than inflation interest rate was a hidden channel to transfer money from the consumers to  the investors.

If someone try to correlate the average wealth of any individual in China with the average yearly interest then I'm 85% sure it will be highly correlated.

Obviously if we want to calculate it for the future then it is a different kind of matter.

At the moment we are in an eigenstate, chaotic attractor or whatever you wean to call it.

The process periodicity falling back to the eigenstate, so to calculate the ROI easy, it simply following a normal distribution in the given eigenstate.

However as soon we will move out from this eigenstate it will change dramatically
1917 Great October Revolution - need any expőlanation? Prior of it the Czar was a low risk borrower, after it the ROI became 0 :)
-Collapse of the EU
-Change in the interest rate policy in China
-Policy change toward stronger union and worker's  rights in Japan or Germany
and so on.

All of them or certain partial combination of them will bring the system toward a new eigenstate.


Sunday, April 26, 2015

Rising of a world power - how China can be thebiggest military player in the West pacific region.

Due to the military power balance many country can continuous anti-Chinese military and foreign policy in the West-Pacific region,and around the life critical Chinese sea routes.

However as soon China develop a capable Naval force any anti-Chinese  military/foreign policy will have the same effect on Japan, Vietnam ,Malaysia or any other country in the region as the ant -US policy for Cuba or the anti Russian policy for Ukraine.

The US has the advantage of the many friends because they are the dominant naval power in the region.As soon as there is another dominant player in the region everyone there will try to align to him.
How could it happens?
The consumption in China is quite low but the investment is high.
One of the oldest way to increase consumption by government force is the military spending.China has low personal consumption and high investment, so it is fairly easy to increase by a magnitude the military spending , even with increasing consumption and stagnant GDP.

The Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy is quite good description fo the possible future evolution of Chinese naval /military force.
Germany was in the same position like China now after the first world war.

However there is a critical difference: Germany had  way smaller economy than the US back then ,but China has roughly the same economical size like the US now.

If we dig into the data then we can see that China consumption level is only 34%, compared to the 68% US share.
Military spending is 2.1% (China) vs. 3.8% (USA)

So China can increase the military spending say to 30% without affecting the level of living, even having capability to increase at teh same time the level of living in China .

The US doesn't has this luxury , the upper level without serious restrictions on the "American way of live"
 could be around 6-8%.

If we consider that the Chinese and US economy roughly has the same capacity / capability, then it spells trouble for the US military dominance.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Interesting article in the , about Indai and the US aircraft carrier technology

Making Waves: Aiding India’s Next-Generation Aircraft Carrier

Contain interesting data.

The basic premise doesn't make sense, I mean it will be interesting to see the US sharing the electromagnetic catapult system with another country, or the full aircraft carrier system technology.

The US had arm sale embargo against India up to 2005 ,so to sell anything to India the US has to overcame the distrust,  and at the end of the day India has 1.3 billion residents, so if it start to grow like China then in 15 years time the US will found another adversary power , however at this time using US originated technology. :)

This is the main point.

If we check the map the Chinese intention visible: protect the oil supply lines from Saudi-Arabia .

However for China to get access to the Indian Ocean has to pass the Singapore strait, so there is not so much sense to arm up to head India.
China has to get full control of the Chinese sea AND Taiwan to step forward to the Indian Ocean, however over there the main intention of them will be the protection of the shipping lanes against  US blockade / intervention.

Without breaking the island chain (by controlling Taiwan example) they can't get access to the world ocean .
Motivation of China :

Yinhe incident

Japan and US enclose Chinese coast within sensor net


Friday, April 17, 2015

What makes a superpower,and how the reserve currency born?

Hypothesis: The necessary and sufficient condition for the reserve currency is a naval power that better than the second /third naval power together.

1. The pound lost the reserve currency status AFTER the US became the NO one navy, and by huge margin .
2.  By sea shipment it is possible to reach 94% of the humankind, and best part of the earth population is arranged around the seashores.
3. The country with the biggest navy can close/open the sea lanes, and it means that for every trading country they are the table point.Every other country can be blocked by the given country - so the currency of the sea superpower has the lowest risk.

Based on the above logic the currency of China can replace the dollar only if the Chinese navy will be the No.1 sea power.

At that point the Yüan will set the value of everything,and the world will force China to accept the reserve currency status,.

Picture (from the )
From the seekingalpha
nice table on the Wiki , showing that the US build seven times more ship during the second world war than everyone together.
The capacity of the US was more than seven times higher than the capacity of Britain.